Robredo-Tulfo Tandem Leads Sara-Imee in OCTA 2028 Survey

MANILA, Philippines — A hypothetical tandem of former Vice President Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo leads against a ticket composed of Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Imee Marcos in a potential 2028 national election, according to a commissioned survey by the OCTA Research group released Thursday.

The OCTA survey, conducted from March 11 to 14, showed that the Robredo-Tulfo pair received a 44 percent approval rating among adult Filipino respondents. The Duterte-Marcos tandem registered 40 percent support, with 16 percent undecided.

Survey Results on Individual Match-Ups

In a separate head-to-head contest for the presidency, Senator Raffy Tulfo defeated Vice President Sara Duterte by a significant margin, according to OCTA's commissioned polling.

The survey, published by multiple news outlets including the Philippine Star, indicated that Tulfo's lead over Duterte was statistically robust, though exact figures for that specific match-up were not detailed in the initial reports.

Undecided Voters and Movable Electorate

OCTA survey data also revealed a narrowing margin between Sara Duterte and Leni Robredo in a hypothetical one-on-one presidential race. The survey found that 19 percent of respondents remain undecided, creating what election law experts describe as a legally significant movable electorate under Republic Act No. 9369, or the Automated Election System Law.

Section 5 of RA 9369 requires survey organizations to disclose their survey methodology, including sample size, margin of error, and the dates the survey was conducted.

Section 261 of the Omnibus Election Code (Batas Pambansa Blg. 881) prohibits any person from publishing survey results that do not include these mandatory disclosures.

This scenario tests knowledge of election law provisions on pre-election surveys, prohibited acts, and the legal definition of 'election period' under RA 7166. Legal scrutiny must focus on whether unprogrammed fund provisions violate the principle of fiscal accountability under the 1987 Constitution.

Tandem Match-Up Methodology

OCTA Research stated that its commissioned survey used a face-to-face interview method with 1,200 respondents nationwide. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

The tandem match-up specifically asked respondents: "If the elections for president and vice president were held today, which of the following pairs would you vote for?" The choices were Robredo-Tulfo versus Duterte-Marcos.

Robredo, who served as vice president from 2016 to 2022 under President Rodrigo Duterte's administration, ran for president in 2022 but lost to Ferdinand Marcos Jr. She has not publicly declared any intention to run in 2028.

Tulfo, a broadcaster-turned-politician, won a Senate seat in the 2022 elections under the administration slate but has maintained an independent voting record. He has consistently topped pre-election surveys for the 2025 senatorial race.

Duterte-Marcos Coalition Status

The survey comes amid questions regarding the stability of the so-called UniTeam alliance between the Duterte and Marcos families. Vice President Sara Duterte, daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, currently serves in the cabinet of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Senator Imee Marcos is the president's sister.

Several political analysts have speculated that the alliance may not extend to the 2028 elections given the wide gap between the two parties in recent legislative battles.

Neither Duterte nor Imee Marcos has confirmed a 2028 run. Both have publicly stated that they are focused on their current mandates.

Election Law Context

Under RA 7166, the election period for national and local elections begins 90 days before election day and ends 30 days after. The 2028 presidential elections are still four years away, and pre-campaign survey restrictions do not yet apply, according to the Commission on Elections.

Comelec Resolution No. 10907 requires that any entity conducting a survey related to an election must provide a detailed disclosure of the survey's sponsorship, including whether it was commissioned by a candidate or a political party.

OCTA Research confirmed that the survey was commissioned by an independent party but did not name the client. The group said the full disclosure requirements under RA 9369 were met.

Observers noted that the high percentage of undecided voters — 19 percent — could significantly alter the final results if they coalesce around one candidate closer to election day.

Forward Outlook

The OCTA survey results will be updated quarterly as the 2028 elections approach, providing a baseline measurement for voter sentiment.

Political camps across the spectrum are expected to commission their own surveys in the coming months to gauge emerging trends and plan strategies accordingly.