Marcos Jr. Reshapes Philippine Foreign Policy, Strengthening US Ties, Hardening China Stance

The administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has launched the most consequential recalibration of Philippine foreign policy in decades, strengthening the country's alliance with the United States while adopting a firmer stance toward China amid escalating tensions over disputed territories in the South China Sea. The strategic shift marks a decisive break from the previous administration's approach, which had tilted toward Beijing while straining relations with Washington.

A Treaty Alliance Reimagined

The relationship between the Philippines and the United States has deep roots, extending back to the Spanish-American War of 1898 and culminating in the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951, which formally cemented the security partnership between the two nations. For more than seven decades, this alliance has served as the cornerstone of Philippine national security policy.

In recent months, however, the alliance has entered a new phase. In February 2023, President Marcos Jr. approved the expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), adding four new locations to the original five sites where American military forces maintain a rotational presence in Philippine territory. The expansion significantly increases the scope of the United States' ability to position personnel and equipment across the archipelago.

The EDCA, first signed in 2014 during the administration of President Benigno Aquino III, provides the legal framework for expanded American military access to Philippine bases. The agreement was originally negotiated amid rising concerns about Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. Under Marcos Jr., the expansion signals a renewed commitment to the alliance just as regional security dynamics have grown increasingly volatile.

Historical Foundations of Independence

The Philippines gained full sovereignty on July 4, 1946, ending nearly five decades of American colonial rule. Since independence, successive administrations have generally maintained a policy of pursuing friendly relations with all nations while treating the American alliance as the primary pillar of national defense.

The country has also played an active role in regional multilateral institutions. The Philippines is a founding member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), joining the regional grouping in 1967 alongside Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the original member states. ASEAN membership has provided the Philippines with a platform for diplomatic engagement across the region, though the organization has often struggled to speak with one voice on the South China Sea disputes.

The Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) of 1998 further defined the terms of American military presence in the Philippines, establishing protocols for joint exercises and port calls. Together with the MDT and EDCA, these agreements form a comprehensive legal architecture governing the bilateral defense relationship.

The South China Sea Flashpoint

No foreign policy challenge has defined Philippine diplomacy more persistently than the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, where Beijing's expansive territorial claims overlap with those of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. The disputes involve not only uninhabited islands, reefs, and atolls but also rich fishing grounds and potentially vast oil and gas reserves beneath the seabed.

The Philippines took a landmark step in 2013 when it filed a formal complaint against China before the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, the world's oldest permanent tribunal for international dispute resolution. The case challenged the legal basis of China's sweeping claims in the sea, which are marked on Chinese government maps by the so-called "nine-dash line" that extends hundreds of miles southward from mainland China.

In July 2016, the tribunal delivered a sweeping ruling in favor of the Philippines. The court declared that China had no legal basis for its claims to historic rights within the nine-dash line and that Beijing had violated the Philippines' sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone. The ruling represented a significant legal victory for Manila and strengthened the Philippines' legal standing in the disputes.

China, however, has refused to acknowledge the ruling, which it considers null and void. Chinese vessels have continued to operate in disputed waters, and incidents involving Philippine coast guard and fishing vessels have become increasingly frequent and sometimes violent. The tensions have tested the alliance commitments of the United States, which has emphasized that an armed attack on Philippine vessels in the South China Sea could trigger the provisions of the Mutual Defense Treaty.

Balancing National Interest

The Marcos Jr. administration has sought to balance competing imperatives in its foreign policy. The government has maintained that the Philippines welcomes investment and trade from all nations, including China, which remains a significant economic partner. At the same time, the administration has made clear that territorial rights and sovereignty will not be compromised.

Department of Foreign Affairs officials have emphasized that the country's foreign policy is guided by national interest, territorial defense, and economic cooperation. This triangulating approach reflects the fundamental challenge facing Philippine diplomacy: a strategic environment in which the country's most important security partner and its most important economic partner are in direct competition.

The expansion of EDCA sites has been accompanied by renewed efforts to modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines, including investments in coast guard capabilities and surveillance systems designed to monitor activity in disputed waters. The government has also sought to strengthen relationships with other regional partners, including Japan, Australia, and European Union member states.

Implications for Regional Stability

The strategic recalibration under Marcos Jr. has not unfolded without consequences. Relations with China have grown more complicated, with Beijing at times resorting to economic pressure tactics and aggressive verbal warnings against what it characterizes as foreign interference in the region.

Yet the administration's approach has also generated significant goodwill in Washington, where officials have praised the Philippines for its willingness to stand firm on international law and alliance commitments. The expanded EDCA access represents the most tangible deepening of the American military presence in the Philippines since the early 1990s, when the closure of the Subic Bay Naval Base marked the end of a major chapter in the bilateral relationship.

Regional analysts say the developments reflect a broader realignment across the Indo-Pacific, as nations reassess their security postures in response to China's growing assertiveness and its increasingly close relationship with Russia. For the Philippines, the recalibration represents both an opportunity to reinforce alliance commitments and a risk of heightened confrontation in disputed waters.

As the Marcos Jr. administration continues to navigate this complex landscape, the foundational principles of Philippine foreign policy—friendship with all nations, an unwavering commitment to sovereignty, and the cultivation of strategic partnerships—remain firmly in place. How these principles are balanced in practice will shape the country's security and prosperity for generations to come.