Eastern Luzon Set for Heaviest Rain This Wednesday

Cloud-laden skies and steady rains are set to drench large parts of the Philippines on Wednesday, February 25, as the northeast monsoon, locally known as amihan, converges with easterlies and a lingering shear line, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

The weather system is expected to bring scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and moderate to at times heavy rains over eastern sections of Northern Luzon, the Bicol Region, parts of the Visayas and Mindanao. Metro Manila and much of the rest of Luzon and the Visayas will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers.

Eastern Luzon Braces for Heaviest Rains

PAGASA forecasts the most significant rainfall over Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Quezon, where the interaction of cool northeasterly winds and warm easterlies is intensifying cloud formation.

In an earlier advisory, the agency said: “Rain is likely to persist through Monday and Tuesday in the eastern sections of Northern Luzon, where the interaction between cool northeasterly winds and warm easterlies may bring cloudy skies, scattered showers and thunderstorms.”

While Wednesday’s rainfall is not linked to any tropical cyclone, forecasters warned that localized flooding and rain-induced landslides remain possible in low-lying and mountainous areas, particularly where soil is already saturated from previous downpours earlier this month.

Areas across the Bicol Region — including Albay, Sorsogon and Masbate — as well as Northern Samar and Eastern Visayas are also expected to receive intermittent rains. Parts of Mindanao may experience scattered thunderstorms.

Metro Manila to See Spotty Showers

For residents of Metro Manila, the impact will be less severe but still disruptive. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms may develop, particularly in the afternoon or evening, affecting commuter traffic and outdoor activities.

Short bursts of rain, while not prolonged, can quickly flood low-lying streets, slowing jeepneys and buses and forcing pedestrians to wade through puddles — a familiar scene during monsoon months.

Winds Moderate, Seas Manageable

Northeasterly winds will prevail across Northern Luzon, blowing at moderate to strong speeds, with moderate to rough seas along coastal waters. Elsewhere in the country, winds will range from light to moderate, with slight to moderate seas.

Importantly, no gale warnings have been issued, and PAGASA is not monitoring any low-pressure areas or tropical cyclones within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This provides a measure of stability for small fishing vessels and coastal transport operators, particularly in Northern Luzon.

Monsoon Season Nearing Transition

The current amihan season began on October 27, 2025, marking the shift from the southwest monsoon to cooler and drier northeasterly winds. However, this week’s rains underscore how the monsoon can still carry significant moisture when combined with other weather systems.

By early next week, conditions are expected to improve. PAGASA specialist Aldczar Aurelio said on February 23: “The amihan will continue to weaken over the next two to three days, while the easterlies… will be the dominant weather system.”

As the amihan gradually subsides, easterlies — warm winds originating from the Pacific — are forecast to prevail, typically bringing warmer temperatures and generally fairer weather across the archipelago.

Looking Ahead: A Calm but Watchful Season

The absence of cyclones offers temporary relief. Yet PAGASA’s longer-term outlook indicates that four to 11 tropical cyclones may form between February and June 2026, with weak La Niña conditions expected to persist through the first half of the year.

For now, Wednesday’s weather reflects the layered complexity of the Philippine climate — where monsoon winds and tropical moisture converge like intersecting currents, shaping daily life from upland farms to coastal villages.

Authorities are advising residents in affected regions to remain alert for sudden downpours and to monitor official advisories, particularly in flood-prone communities.

As the skies darken across the eastern seaboard midweek, the message from forecasters remains measured: stay prepared, but there is no immediate severe threat.