The northeast monsoon, or amihan, has regained strength over extreme Northern Luzon, bringing light rains and cooler mornings to the country’s northernmost islands even as much of the Philippines inches toward the dry season.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the weather system is affecting Batanes and the Babuyan Islands, where partly cloudy to overcast skies and isolated light showers have been recorded since early this week. While the surge is milder than previous cold spells, state forecasters expect it to linger through at least March 10.
Light Rains, Moderate Seas in the Far North
“The amihan is bringing partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains over Batanes and Babuyan Islands,” said PAGASA weather specialist Loriedin de la Cruz-Galicia in a March 4 briefing.
Sea conditions across Northern Luzon remain moderate, with no gale warnings in effect. The Philippine Coast Guard and local government units have not imposed travel restrictions, though authorities continue to monitor sea movement for small fishing vessels operating in the area.
Satellite imagery captured at 7 a.m. on March 3 showed cloud formations consistent with the monsoon’s renewed flow, confirming field observations from weather stations in the north.
Not as Cold as Past Surges
Unlike the sharper amihan episodes earlier this year, the current surge has not triggered a significant temperature drop.
“We foresee the amihan to remain active in certain areas of Luzon through tomorrow, though we do not anticipate the temperatures to drop as significantly as during previous cold spells,” said Chenel Dominguez, a PAGASA weather expert, during a March 3 update.
Forecast temperatures for March 3 and 4 reflect the moderation:
Laoag City: 23°C to 31°C
Tuguegarao City: 24°C to 34°C
Baguio City: 16°C to 25°C
Metro Manila: 25°C to 32°C
In highland areas such as Baguio, mornings remain brisk, offering a final stretch of sweater weather before the country fully transitions to hotter months. In the lowlands, however, midday humidity has begun to return, particularly in the Cagayan Valley.
No Typhoons, No Low-Pressure Areas
As of this week, PAGASA has reported no active typhoons or low-pressure areas within the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The seas, while mildly choppy in the north, remain generally safe for small marine vessels.
This relative calm stands in contrast to the monsoon’s onset in late October 2025, when successive high-pressure surges over East Asia signaled rougher waters ahead.
In a press statement issued on October 27, PAGASA noted that forecasts indicated “successive surges of the monsoon over the next two weeks that may cause rough sea condition over the seaboards of Northern Luzon.” Since then, periodic reinforcements of the amihan have shaped much of Luzon’s cooler season.
Impact on Daily Life and Livelihoods
For residents in Batanes and the Babuyan Islands, the current rains are less a threat than an inconvenience. Light showers can make narrow roads slick and complicate short sea crossings, particularly for fisherfolk who depend on daily trips for income.
Moderate waves may influence the volume of fresh catch arriving in mainland Cagayan markets, affecting supply and prices. Even minor changes in sea conditions can mean postponed departures for small boats that operate without the buffer of larger commercial fleets.
Elsewhere in Luzon, the amihan’s reach has weakened. Easterlies—warm winds blowing from the Pacific—now dominate much of the archipelago, bringing isolated thunderstorms and rising humidity in the afternoons. Farmers and outdoor vendors face hotter working conditions, especially in inland cities like Tuguegarao, where temperatures are forecast to peak at 34°C.
Transition to the Dry Season
The current surge may mark one of the season’s final pulses before the country shifts more decisively into the dry months. The amihan, which PAGASA formally declared on October 27, 2025, typically governs the country’s cool and relatively dry period, steering cold air southward from mainland Asia.
By March, however, its grip weakens. The wind pattern begins to resemble a retreating tide—still present in the north, but gradually yielding to warmer easterlies.
For now, Northern Luzon remains under its influence. PAGASA continues to advise residents, particularly those in coastal and upland communities, to monitor daily forecasts as conditions evolve.
The broader outlook remains steady: no storms on the horizon, no widespread disruptions expected—just the fading breath of the monsoon sweeping across the country’s northernmost islands.
