A fresh round of fuel price hikes is set to take effect next week, adding to mounting pressure on household budgets and transport costs as global oil markets remain on edge. Major oil companies have announced increases across diesel, gasoline, and kerosene, marking yet another escalation driven largely by geopolitical unrest far beyond local shores.
Prices Set to Rise From January 20
Beginning January 20, 2026, motorists and consumers will face higher pump prices nationwide. Oil firms have confirmed the following adjustments:
- Diesel: up by P2.00 per litre
- Gasoline: up by P1.00 per litre
- Kerosene: up by P1.50 per litre
Most companies will implement the increase at 6 a.m., while Cleanfuel will apply the new prices later in the day, at 4:01 p.m. Not all retailers carry kerosene, but where available the hike will be felt immediately.
A Second Straight Increase for Motorists
This week’s adjustment follows a smaller rise implemented between January 13 and 19, when gasoline prices went up by P0.30 per litre, diesel by P0.20, and kerosene by P0.30. Taken together, the increases push year‑to‑date net adjustments for 2026 to:
- Gasoline: P1.20 per litre
- Diesel: P2.40 per litre
- Kerosene: P1.90 per litre
For diesel and kerosene users, the coming hike will be the fourth consecutive weekly increase, underscoring a persistent upward trend at the start of the year.
Geopolitics Tighten the Global Oil Tap
Energy officials and industry executives attribute the latest spike to volatility in the global crude market, even as overall supply remains ample. The Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau warned days earlier that fears of widening conflict in key oil‑producing regions were already being priced into refined fuel costs.
Leo Bellas, president of Jetti Petroleum, said the market is reacting less to fundamentals and more to uncertainty. “Rising geopolitical tensions have caused a ‘significant increase’ in both crude oil and refined fuel prices,” he said, pointing to instability in Iran, Venezuela, and the Black Sea region.
Bellas added that unrest in Iran, coupled with speculation about possible United States involvement, has heightened fears of disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. Even the hint of interruption, analysts say, can work like a choke point, sending prices sharply higher despite ample inventories elsewhere.
How Prices Are Set
The adjustments are made under the country’s deregulated fuel regime, governed by the Downstream Oil Industry Deregulation Act of 1998. The law allows oil companies to set pump prices based on market conditions, while the state monitors movements for transparency and compliance rather than direct control.
As a result, increases — and any future rollbacks — tend to follow global benchmarks closely, filtering down to local forecourts with little delay.
The Cost to Ordinary Households
While the causes may lie thousands of kilometres away, the impact will be felt closest to home. Transport groups estimate that the latest hikes could add roughly P20 to P40 a day to commuting costs for households relying on public utility vehicles.
Diesel‑dependent sectors face steeper consequences. Higher fuel costs for trucks and fishing boats often ripple through food supply chains, nudging up prices of staples such as rice, vegetables, and fish. For sari‑sari store owners, delivery riders, farmers, and other informal workers, thinner margins leave little room to absorb the added expense.
Little Relief in Sight
Analysts caution that fuel prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term, as markets respond to headlines as much as hard data. As one industry observer noted, geopolitical tension is pushing prices higher “despite the oversupply of oil products in the first month of 2026.”
For now, motorists have few options beyond bracing for the increase or filling up ahead of the adjustment — a familiar ritual as fuel prices once again edge upward, week by week.
